Ammonia is the world's second most produced chemical, with approximately 200 million tonnes made each year. While over 80% of this amount is used for fertilizer, other uses include refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, explosives, and textiles. IDTechEx's portfolios of Energy & Decarbonization and Hydrogen Research Reports and Subscriptions are home to IDTechEx's latest research into ammonia and describe the emerging sectors where ammonia could see future demand.
Ammonia and hydrogen
Ammonia is reliant on hydrogen as a feedstock, according to IDTechEx's report, "Ammonia Market 2026-2036: Technologies, Forecasts, Players", and the most incumbent method of sourcing hydrogen is currently extracting it from natural gas. Using this hydrogen to produce ammonia results in a process which is responsible for over 2% of the world's energy usage and 1% of global CO2 emissions. Low temperatures and high pressures are often required for storing hydrogen, meaning ammonia is often produced on-site in regions where there are large fossil fuel resources and hydrogen production. IDTechEx reports that in 2018, ammonia was responsible for 43% of the global demand for hydrogen.
The global ammonia market
Globally, there is approximately 200Mtpa of ammonia production capacity, with around 200 ports, 500 vessels, and over 7,000km of ammonia pipelines all playing important roles within the industry. China is both the largest producer and consumer of ammonia, with consumption largely associated with fertilizer usage. IDTechEx's research highlights that Asia and North America are the two continents with the greatest number of ammonia exports, while Asia and Europe are the biggest importers. Africa has also seen a recent surge in ammonia imports, largely due to an increase in demand for fertilizer.
Millions of tonnes of capacity are produced each year by ammonia producers worldwide, including companies such as Nutrien and CF Industries in North America, Yara and OCI Global in Europe, and Sinopec in Asia. Many leading ammonia companies, however, are now considering low-carbon production routes for ammonia.
Low-carbon ammonia routes
Low-carbon ammonia production is becoming increasingly important within a landscape of environmental regulations and government incentives such as tax credits, while demand for low-carbon products worldwide is becoming more prevalent and sustainability initiatives are happening across many major sectors.
Blue ammonia is produced using regular methods with a natural gas feedstock, but with the added implementation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies (CCUS). When retrofitting CCUS equipment to a grey ammonia site, it is more straightforward to capture CO2 from the steam methane reforming process than from combustion processes, as nitrogen is mixed in with the CO2. However, utilizing a greenfield site, hydrogen can be produced in an oxygen-only atmosphere, meaning it is easier to capture a higher proportion of carbon dioxide. CF Industries in Louisiana and Yara in Norway both have significant projects underway regarding low-carbon ammonia production.
Green ammonia is produced when the hydrogen used in the process has been produced from water electrolysis, described in IDTechEx's report, "Green Hydrogen Production & Electrolyzer Market 2027-2037: Technologies, Players, Forecasts". While this is a much cleaner route, it is much more expensive, with around 50-75% of green ammonia production costs associated with renewable energy costs. There are currently over 350 planned green ammonia projects, far more than blue ammonia projects, including large ones in China and Saudi Arabia, with China leading in number of green ammonia projects. However, green ammonia projects tend to be smaller and have a lower project success rate. All of these green ammonia plants will also need to be able to deal with the intermittency of renewable energy supply.
For the latest research into the applications and uses for ammonia and affected markets, visit IDTechEx's report, "Ammonia Market 2026-2036: Technologies, Forecasts, Players", and the portfolios of Energy & Decarbonization and Hydrogen Research Reports and Subscriptions.
